The National Assembly is introducing new excise duties applying on air conditioners, sweetened soft drinks, alcoholic drinks, cigars, and cigarettes. Major changes will include:
Air conditioners: With capacity of 24,000 – 90,000 BTU: 10%.
Soft drinks with sugar content over 5g per 100ml: 8% (2027) and 10% (2028 and afterwards).
Alcoholic drinks:
Beer and >20% ABV liquor: increasing progressively from 65% (current) up to 90% in 2031;
<20% ABV liquor: increasing progressively from 35% (current) up to 60% in 2031.
Cigars, tobacco, and cigarettes: the form changed from rate to absolute value, and it will increase progressively from 2026 to 2031.
Excise duties typically decrease the demand for specific products but also create a blue ocean for alternative or replacement substitute products.
Vietnam Rubber Group (GVR VN): Latex will be in short supply till 2028
The state-invested enterprise forecasts a gap of 2 million tons between demand and supply of natural rubber in 2028, suggesting a price surge in the next few years if there is no significant intervention. In H1 2025, the company’s average rubber sale price was reported at nearly VND52 million (USD2,000) per ton, up +21% compared to 2024.
GVR has been developing industrial parks and renewable energy projects:(1) Industrial Parks: 7,500 hectares of land were newly added to its land bank, elongating its pipeline which already has 4 projects with land size of 1,657 hectares in total; (2) Renewable Energy: the group has been cooperating with EVN to build up several projects with total capacity of 2,400 MW during the 2026 – 2030 period, in which the 1,200 MW pumped-storage hydro-power plant in Da Nang and two solar farms (i.e. 395 mW in Binh Phuoc and 600 MW in Binh Duong). Total capex could be VND33.2 trillion (about USD1.3 billion). Rubber forests and renewable energy projects also allow the group to sell carbon credits, expected to be commercially available this year.
Financially, the company disclosed preliminary results with completion of 46% and 43% in term of revenue and profit in H1 2025, respectively. GVR VN closed at VND29,000 per share on 18th June 2025, thus 24.7x P/E and 2.1x P/B.
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